Waiting for Tomas...

The National Weather Service, a program by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States, issues advisory reports once a tropical storm is formed and tracks its progress until it dissipates. The benefit of this is multiple updates a day brought to my in-box. The downside is the lack of warning before the tropical storm forms. So, I was waiting for Tomas before he was officially named, because of the multiple weather websites I've already mentioned I monitor. Predictions started about a hurricane forming in the Caribbean at the end of October. Tomas was a little late, with his first advisory being issued on October 29th. From there, we watched and we waited. He gained strength and plowed through St. Lucia and other islands close by as a Category 1 hurricane and a death toll of 14. Then he dropped back down to a tropical storm, down to a tropical depression and then as predicted, started gaining strength back to a tropical storm. All the while there was variance with the path he was going to take, how close he would pass to which islands and at what strength. But one thing remained consistent, Tomas' final destination.

The whole time, Tomas has had is eye on Haiti - the country in the Caribbean least capable of handling a direct hit from a hurricane. There are still 1.3 million people living in tent cities after the January 12th earthquake killed 300,000 people (CBC). The recent cholera outbreak has brought 330 deaths, with 4,700 people hospitalized. And now the country is trying to brace for the prediction that Tomas will reach hurricane strength by the time he reaches Haiti. There will be evacuations of low lying areas, attempts are being made to move camps in flood prone areas, but there's not a lot that can be done at this point, and not really anywhere people can go. The Government of Haiti has indicated people are going to be pretty much on their own. 

While the world is hoping Tomas veers away, from Haiti I've heard Jamaicans wishing Tomas towards our island. This, of course, comes after an initial wish for Tomas to just go away and leave us all alone. But barring that, "let him come for us". It's strange at first to hear someone wishing a hurricane upon themselves and their country - but I've been wishing the same thing too, for Tomas to make landfall anywhere but Haiti. I do so with some guilt, knowing that while Jamaica could take the hit with less devastation, that doesn't mean it would be without devastation. Repairs are still being made from Tropical Storm Nicole, who passed us by over a month ago. Roads are still in desperate need of repair (although that is something of an on-going situation) and some communities are still waiting to get running water again (Jamaican Observer). While predictions are that Tomas will do less damage than Nicole (who left a death toll of 13), I know that the brunt of the damage wont take place in New Kingston with it's concrete fortification. It'll take place in the country where the government is encouraging evacuations,  advice not everyone is going to heed (Go Jamaica). Currently Tomas is lying SSE of us and on a NNW path - which does mean at the moment he's coming right at Jamaica. However, a shift to the NNE has been consistently predicted to happen soon. A prediction I keep putting faith in, while keeping in mind there are no guarantees.

We wait. We watch. We batten down the hatches. I've done my version of preparation - books and electronics are wrapped in plastic and placed in the one room of my apartment that doesn't have a wooden roof. A flashlight, candles, matches and lighters are at the ready on the kitchen counter. Jugs and buckets of water have been filled. Extra food is in the cupboard. My cell phone is charged, with contact numbers at the ready. We're expecting to start feeling the effects of Tomas' outer bands later today, and Haiti will most likely be faced with Tomas on Friday. So far the skies are only slightly darkened (I can still see the Blue Mountains), and all we've had is a small burst of rain. Soon the UNESCO emergency contact tree will be operational, and if the office is closed I'll receive a phone call from a coworker, and then I'll make the next call to another coworker. Before things really pick up, I'll make my way up to my friend's place to hunker down. I know, I listed off all those wonderful responsible things I did to prepare myself, and then I'm just going abandon my apartment for some company, a generator and a kitchen stocked ten times better than mine.

So, we wait. We watch. We batten down the hatches.

And we keep an eye on those predictions that a new tropical cyclone might form in the Caribbean next week...